Statistical modelling of the seasonality of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth restriction in rural Gambia

Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology
Anthony J C FulfordAndrew M Prentice

Abstract

We have developed a methodology for comparing the seasonal influences on two outcomes, when those influences may act cumulatively or instantaneously. We have used this to compare the seasonal pattern of intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR, as reflected by weight-for-gestational-age) and preterm delivery (as assessed by Dubowitz scoring) among 1718 infants born in rural Gambia. Both outcomes were analysed as binary variables: small-for-gestational-age (SGA, <10th centile of reference standard) and preterm (<37 weeks) respectively. Percentages of preterm and SGA babies show divergent seasonal patterns that might indicate separate aetiologies. However, seasonal effects influencing intrauterine growth are likely to be cumulative over the last few months of pregnancy. By modelling seasonality with truncated Fourier series we were able to deconvolve the underlying seasonal influences on fetal growth from the pattern for SGA. This enabled us to use seemingly unrelated biprobit regression to compare the underlying seasonal pattern of intrauterine growth with that governing the incidence of preterm delivery. We conclude that, if the seasonal factors affecting intrauterine growth operate over more than the last 2 months of pregnancy, t...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jul 24, 2014·Journal of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease·A J C FulfordA M Prentice
Aug 5, 2008·International Journal of Epidemiology·Sophie HawkesworthSophie E Moore
Aug 17, 2012·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Ian J RickardVirpi Lummaa
Mar 7, 2009·BMC Medical Genetics·Branwen J HennigAndrew M Prentice
Sep 2, 2010·PloS One·Serign J CeesayDavid J Conway
Apr 12, 2013·The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition·Paula Dominguez-SalasBranwen J Hennig
May 2, 2014·Nature Communications·Paula Dominguez-SalasBranwen J Hennig
Sep 10, 2014·BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth·Michelle M HughesJames M Tielsch
Nov 13, 2008·Paediatric and Perinatal Epidemiology·Lisa M Bodnar, Hyagriv N Simhan
Jan 6, 2010·Child: Care, Health and Development·C-W ChenMing-Chung Ko
Jul 7, 2010·BMC Infectious Diseases·Momodou K DarboeAndrew M Prentice
Apr 20, 2011·BMC Medical Research Methodology·Linn Beate StrandShilu Tong
Oct 4, 2016·Maternal & Child Nutrition·William JohnsonSophie E Moore
Aug 6, 2017·FASEB Journal : Official Publication of the Federation of American Societies for Experimental Biology·Kamilla G EriksenAndrew M Prentice
Jun 14, 2016·The Journal of Clinical Endocrinology and Metabolism·Jean RedmondInez Schoenmakers
Jun 17, 2011·The American Journal of Clinical Nutrition·Sophie HawkesworthSophie E Moore

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