Subjective expectations in the context of HIV/AIDS in Malawi.

Demographic Research
Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler

Abstract

In this paper we present a newly developed interactive elicitation methodology for collecting probabilistic expectations in a developing country context with low levels of literacy and numeracy, and we evaluate the feasibility and success of this method for a wide range of outcomes in rural Malawi. We find that respondents' answers about their subjective expectations take into account basic properties of probabilities, and vary meaningfully with observable characteristics and past experience. From a substantive point of view, the elicited expectations indicate that individuals are generally aware of differential risks. For example, individuals with lower incomes and less land rightly feel at greater risk of financial distress than people with higher socioeconomic status (SES), and people who are divorced or widowed rightly feel at greater risk of being infected with HIV than currently married individuals. Meanwhile many expectations-including the probability of being currently infected with HIV-are well-calibrated compared to actual probabilities, but mortality expectations are substantially overestimated compared to life table estimates. This overestimation may lead individuals to underestimate the benefits of adopting HIV ris...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 30, 2012·Demography·Adeline Delavande, Hans-Peter Kohler
Nov 6, 2013·Journal of Health Economics·Begoña Álvarez, Marcos Vera-Hernández
Jun 1, 2012·The World Bank Economic Review·Hans-Peter Kohler, Rebecca Thornton
Nov 25, 2014·Demographic Research·Lauren K Bachan
Apr 23, 2013·Demographic Research·Iliana V KohlerJere R Behrman
Mar 14, 2016·Economics and Human Biology·Nicholas Wilson
Jul 15, 2015·Journal of Biosocial Science·Christie Sennott, Sara Yeatman
Jul 7, 2016·The Journals of Gerontology. Series B, Psychological Sciences and Social Sciences·Tyler W Myroniuk
Apr 27, 2012·American Sociological Review·Jenny Trinitapoli, Sara Yeatman
Mar 9, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Wändi Bruine de Bruin, Baruch Fischhoff
Apr 26, 2016·American Sociological Review·Margaret Frye, Jenny Trinitapoli
Nov 26, 2019·Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes : JAIDS·Jacob Bor, Harsha Thirumurthy
May 13, 2014·AIDS and Behavior·Stéphane HelleringerHans-Peter Kohler
Feb 12, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Emily Smith-Greenaway, Jenny Trinitapoli
Mar 19, 2014·International Journal of Epidemiology·Hans-Peter KohlerLinda Kalilani-Phiri
Dec 16, 2017·Demographic Research·Margaret Frye, Sophia Chae
Sep 23, 2018·Demography·Brigitte DormontErik Schokkaert
Apr 27, 2018·Population and Development Review·Jenny Trinitapoli, Sara Yeatman
Apr 10, 2021·Demography·Jason T Kerwin, Natalia Ordaz Reynoso
Oct 31, 2015·Journal of Health Economics·Victoria BaranovHans-Peter Kohler

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