DOI: 10.1101/497800Dec 21, 2018Paper

Supporting decision making: Modeling and forecasting measles in a London borough

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Stefan EdlundAlan J. Poots


To investigate the feasibility of using freeware to model and forecast disease on a local scale, we report the results of modeling measles using a spatial patch model centered around 73 clinics in the North West London Borough of Ealing. MMR1 and MM2 immunization data was extracted for three cohorts, age 1-3, 4-6 and 7-19 and patient population was estimated using general practice profile records. We designed the measles model using the open source Spatiotemporal Epidemio-logical Modeler (STEM), extending a compartmental disease model to include both maternal immunity and delays in antibody response after immunization. Individuals above age 19 are not included in the modeling. Next, we generate an approximate 20-year model of vaccination coverage for Ea-ling. In England, children are immunized between age 1 and 2, then again at around age 5; hence immunization events are modeled for the age 1-3 and age 4-6 cohorts. Parameter values were based on measles research literature; transmission coeffi-cients were estimated using the Polymod contact data and also fitted to 2011-2012 case reporting data for Ealing. To examine possible effects of policy change, we create two scenarios A and B. In A, we increase vaccination coverage by 10%...Continue Reading

Related Concepts

Compartment Syndromes
AS 6
Disease Transmission
Logic Model

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