Surprising similarities in model and observational aerosol radiative forcing estimates

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
Edward GryspeerdtKai Zhang

Abstract

The radiative forcing from aerosols (particularly through their interaction with clouds) remains one of the most uncertain components of the human forcing of the climate. Observation-based studies have typically found a smaller aerosol effective radiative forcing than in model simulations and were given preferential weighting in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). With their own sources of uncertainty, it is not clear that observation-based estimates are more reliable. Understanding the source of the model and observational differences is thus vital to reduce uncertainty in the impact of aerosols on the climate. These reported discrepancies arise from the different methods of separating the components of aerosol forcing used in model and observational studies. Applying the observational decomposition to global climate model (GCM) output, the two different lines of evidence are surprisingly similar, with a much better agreement on the magnitude of aerosol impacts on cloud properties. Cloud adjustments remain a significant source of uncertainty, particularly for ice clouds. However, they are consistent with the uncertainty from observation-based methods, with the liquid water path a...Continue Reading

References

Aug 4, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Yoram J KaufmanYinon Rudich
Feb 28, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Steven GhanKai Zhang
Apr 28, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Edward GryspeerdtKai Zhang
Jun 24, 2017·Nature·Florent F MalavelleThorvaldur Thordarson
Aug 2, 2019·Nature·Velle TollNicolas Bellouin
Jan 1, 2018·Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics·David L MitchellEhsan Erfani
Jan 1, 2017·Current Climate Change Reports·Kenneth S CarslawKirsty J Pringle

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Citations

Jun 12, 2020·Science Advances·Johannes MülmenstädtJohannes Quaas
Sep 17, 2020·Science Advances·Johannes MülmenstädtJohannes Quaas

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Software Mentioned

RFaci
anthsca
AeroCom
sstClimAerosol
sstClim

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