Temperature-driven global sea-level variability in the Common Era

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Robert E KoppStefan Rahmstorf

Abstract

We assess the relationship between temperature and global sea-level (GSL) variability over the Common Era through a statistical metaanalysis of proxy relative sea-level reconstructions and tide-gauge data. GSL rose at 0.1 ± 0.1 mm/y (2σ) over 0-700 CE. A GSL fall of 0.2 ± 0.2 mm/y over 1000-1400 CE is associated with ∼ 0.2 °C global mean cooling. A significant GSL acceleration began in the 19th century and yielded a 20th century rise that is extremely likely (probability [Formula: see text]) faster than during any of the previous 27 centuries. A semiempirical model calibrated against the GSL reconstruction indicates that, in the absence of anthropogenic climate change, it is extremely likely ([Formula: see text]) that 20th century GSL would have risen by less than 51% of the observed [Formula: see text] cm. The new semiempirical model largely reconciles previous differences between semiempirical 21st century GSL projections and the process model-based projections summarized in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report.

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Citations

Oct 30, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Ning LinJeffrey P Donnelly
Dec 9, 2016·Scientific Reports·Susana CostasEduardo Leorri
Feb 12, 2017·Nature Communications·Aron J MeltznerBambang W Suwargadi
Feb 22, 2018·Nature Communications·Matthias MengelCarl-Friedrich Schleussner
Oct 31, 2018·Science Progress·Christopher J Rhodes
Mar 16, 2019·Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences·Vivien GornitzDaniel Bader
May 24, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sönke DangendorfRiccardo Riva
Jul 7, 2017·BMC Public Health·Jacqueline M Torres, Joan A Casey
Feb 18, 2020·Earth's Future·Robert E KoppWilliam V Sweet
Sep 4, 2020·Reviews of Geophysics·Benjamin D HamlingtonMichael J Willis
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Jan 24, 2019·Coastal Management : an International Journal of Marine Environment, Resources, Law, and Society·John A HallKathleen D White
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Mar 25, 2021·Nature Communications·Jennifer S WalkerBenjamin P Horton
May 20, 2021·Nature Communications·Benjamin H StraussSergey Vinogradov
Sep 26, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael E Mann

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