Temporal and longitudinal analysis of Danish Swine Salmonellosis Control Programme data: implications for surveillance

Epidemiology and Infection
J BenschopN P French

Abstract

The control programme for Salmonella infection in Danish swine has reduced the number of human cases attributable to pork consumption and the focus is now on cost-effectiveness. We applied time-series and longitudinal analyses to data collected between January 1995 and May 2005 to identify if there were predictable periods of risk that could inform sampling strategy; to investigate the potential for forecasting for early aberration detection; and to explore temporal redundancy within the sampling strategy. There was no evidence of seasonality hence no justification to change to targeted sampling at high-risk periods. The forecast of seropositivity made using an ARIMA (0, 1, 2) model had a root-mean-squared percentage error criterion of 8.4% indicating that accurate forecasts are possible. The lorelogram identified temporal redundancy at up to 10 weeks suggesting little value in sampling more frequently than this on the 'average' farm. These findings have practical applications for both farm-level sampling strategy and national-level aberration detection which potentially could result in a more cost-effective surveillance strategy.

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Citations

Aug 6, 2009·Epidemiology and Infection·E I BroughtonC L Coles
Jan 23, 2010·Epidemiology and Infection·J WeisentB Rohrbach
Jun 7, 2011·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Fernanda C DóreaCrawford W Revie
Aug 12, 2009·APMIS : Acta Pathologica, Microbiologica, Et Immunologica Scandinavica·Ayako SumiNobumichi Kobayashi
Apr 5, 2013·Zoonoses and Public Health·A Al-Sakkaf, G Jones
Jun 12, 2010·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·F M BaptistaL R Nielsen
Jan 2, 2013·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Hu Suk LeeGeorge E Moore
Dec 7, 2013·Preventive Veterinary Medicine·Ahmed S MohamedGeorge E Moore
Sep 25, 2017·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Charline Maertens de NoordhoutNiko Speybroeck

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