Mar 28, 2017

Temporal patterns and geographic heterogeneity of Zika virus (ZIKV) outbreaks in French Polynesia and Central America

PeerJ
Ying-Hen Hsieh

Abstract

Zika virus (ZIKV) transmission has been reported in 67 countries/territories in the Oceania region and the Americas since 2015, prompting the World Health Organization (WHO) to declare ZIKV as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2016, due to its strong association with medical complications such as microcephaly and Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS). However, a substantial gap in knowledge still exists regarding differing temporal pattern and potential of transmission of ZIKV in different regions of the world. We use a phenomenological model to ascertain the temporal patterns and transmission potential of ZIKV in various countries/territories, by fitting the model to Zika case data from Yap Island and French Polynesia in the Oceania region and 11 countries/territories with confirmed case data, namely, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Mexico, Nicaragua, Panama, Puerto Rico, Saint Martin, and Suriname, to pinpoint the waves of infections in each country/territory and to estimate the respective basic reproduction number R0. Six of these time series datasets resulted in statistically significant model fit of at least one wave of reported cases, namely that of French Polynesia, Colombia,...Continue Reading

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Study
Patterns
Virus Diseases
Euginia uniflora
Reproduction
Research Methodology
World Health Organization
Disease Transmission
Complication
Columbia

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