Testing the internal consistency of the lottery equivalents method using health outcomes

Health Economics
Adam Oliver

Abstract

The standard gamble has a firm basis in the theory of risk and, for this reason, is the preferred method of health state value elicitation for many researchers. However, it is widely recognised that the use of immediate death as the failure outcome in the standard gamble renders the method insufficiently sensitive for the direct valuation of minor and temporary health states. Consequently, the indirect valuation of minor and temporary health states through a process of 'chaining' has been recommended. Unfortunately, a number of researchers have observed internal inconsistency in the standard gamble. That is, for health states that are not thought to be subject to the above mentioned insufficient sensitivity, the values elicited from indirect chained questions quite often significantly and systematically exceed those elicited from the direct procedure. A potential explanation for this is the possible influence of loss aversion when people are asked to weigh certainty against risk. The lottery equivalents method, an alternative value elicitation instrument that also has a firm grounding in the theory of risk, modifies the standard gamble approach of certainty versus risk to one of risk versus risk. The absence of certainty offers...Continue Reading

References

Jan 1, 1989·International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care·G W Torrance, D Feeny
Jan 1, 1982·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·H Llewellyn-ThomasN F Boyd
Sep 1, 1995·Medical Care·M P Rutten-van MölkenS van der Linden
Jan 8, 1996·Journal of Health Economics·H Bleichrodt, A Gafni
Feb 9, 1986·Journal of Health Economics·G W Torrance

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Citations

Oct 7, 2011·Health Economics·José María Abellán PerpiñánIldefonso Méndez
Jun 21, 2015·Value in Health : the Journal of the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research·Matteo Ruggeri, Silvia Coretti
Jun 5, 2007·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Laura J DamschroderPeter A Ubel
Jun 14, 2005·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Harold P Lehmann
Jan 25, 2006·Health Economics·Adam Oliver
Nov 16, 2021·Expert Review of Pharmacoeconomics & Outcomes Research·Eva Rodríguez-Míguez, Jacinto Mosquera Nogueira

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