Testing the Ultra High Risk (prodromal) criteria for the prediction of psychosis in a clinical sample of young people

Schizophrenia Research
Alison R YungPatrick D McGorry

Abstract

Criteria for identifying individuals at imminent risk for onset of a psychotic disorder, that is "prodromal" for psychosis, have recently been described. The current study set out to test the predictive validity of these criteria in a sample of help-seeking young people aged 15-24 years who were referred to, but not necessarily treated at, a psychiatric service. Ultra High Risk (UHR) status was determined at baseline and psychosis status was assessed at 6 month follow up. Baseline psychosocial functioning was also assessed as a possible predictor of psychosis. In the sample of 292 individuals, 119 (40.7%) met UHR criteria. Of these UHR+ people, 12 became psychotic within 6 months and 107 did not. Only one person not meeting UHR criteria developed psychosis in the follow up period. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of UHR+ status for prediction of psychosis were, respectively, 0.923 (95% CI 0.621, 1), 0.616 (95% CI 0.556, 0.673), 0.101 (95% CI 0.056, 0.173) and 0.994 (95% CI 0.963, 1). UHR+ individuals were significantly more likely to become psychotic than UHR- individuals (Odds Ratio 19.3, 95% CI 2.5, 150.5). Low functioning at baseline was associated with psychosis onset in the ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 4, 2013·Hormones and Behavior·Hanan D TrotmanElaine F Walker
Sep 28, 2014·European Archives of Psychiatry and Clinical Neuroscience·Hendrik MüllerAndreas Bechdolf
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