The cold-water climate shield: delineating refugia for preserving salmonid fishes through the 21st century

Global Change Biology
Daniel J IsaakMatthew C Groce

Abstract

The distribution and future fate of ectothermic organisms in a warming world will be dictated by thermalscapes across landscapes. That is particularly true for stream fishes and cold-water species like trout, salmon, and char that are already constrained to high elevations and latitudes. The extreme climates in those environments also preclude invasions by most non-native species, so identifying especially cold habitats capable of absorbing future climate change while still supporting native populations would highlight important refugia. By coupling crowd-sourced biological datasets with high-resolution stream temperature scenarios, we delineate network refugia across >250 000 stream km in the Northern Rocky Mountains for two native salmonids-bull trout (BT) and cutthroat trout (CT). Under both moderate and extreme climate change scenarios, refugia with high probabilities of trout population occupancy (>0.9) were predicted to exist (33-68 BT refugia; 917-1425 CT refugia). Most refugia are on public lands (>90%) where few currently have protected status in National Parks or Wilderness Areas (<15%). Forecasts of refuge locations could enable protection of key watersheds and provide a foundation for climate smart planning of conse...Continue Reading

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Citations

Feb 13, 2016·Ecology and Evolution·Kevin S McKelveyMichael K Schwartz
Apr 5, 2016·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Daniel J IsaakDavid E Nagel
Aug 11, 2016·PloS One·Toni Lyn MorelliSteven R Beissinger
Jan 14, 2017·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Daniel J IsaakMichael K Young
Jul 7, 2017·PloS One·James J RobertsDavid M Walters
Jul 25, 2017·The Science of the Total Environment·Eric R MerriamNicolas Zegre
Jul 26, 2017·Global Change Biology·Michael K YoungMichael K Schwartz
Sep 3, 2017·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Daniel E Schindler
May 24, 2016·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Alisa A WadeClint C Muhlfeld
Mar 30, 2017·Evolutionary Applications·Andrew R WhiteleyBenjamin H Letcher
Jan 1, 2018·Hydrology and Earth System Sciences·Martin A BriggsJohn W Lane
Sep 19, 2020·Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment·Joseph L EbersoleBenjamin H Letcher
Sep 16, 2020·Global Change Biology·Jackson H BirrellH Arthur Woods
Jun 20, 2018·The Science of the Total Environment·Martin A BriggsJohn W Lane
Mar 27, 2021·Evolutionary Applications·Jeffrey T StraitGordon Luikart
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Oct 7, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Mark A Kirk, Frank J Rahel
Nov 11, 2021·Biological Reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society·Christian E TorgersenColden V Baxter

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