The collider principle in causal reasoning: why the Monty Hall dilemma is so hard

Journal of Experimental Psychology. General
Bruce D Burns, Mareike Wieth

Abstract

The authors tested the thesis that people find the Monty Hall dilemma (MHD) hard because they fail to understand the implications of its causal structure, a collider structure in which 2 independent causal factors influence a single outcome. In 4 experiments, participants performed better in versions of the MHD involving competition, which emphasizes causality. This manipulation resulted in more correct responses to questions about the process in the MHD and a counterfactual that changed its causal structure. Correct responses to these questions were associated with solving the MHD regardless of condition. In addition, training on the collider principle transferred to a standard version of the MHD. The MHD taps a deeper question: When is knowing about one thing informative about another?

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Citations

Feb 24, 2010·Journal of Comparative Psychology·Walter T Herbranson, Julia Schroeder
Sep 1, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·Jean Baratgin
Apr 16, 2015·Frontiers in Psychology·Elisabet TubauEric D Johnson
May 27, 2014·Frontiers in Psychology·Mike Oaksford
May 25, 2011·Personality & Social Psychology Bulletin·John V Petrocelli, Anna K Harris
Aug 17, 2006·Experimental Psychology·Wim De Neys, Niki Verschueren
Nov 16, 2013·Learning & Behavior·Walter T Herbranson, Shanglun Wang
Nov 28, 2018·Psychologica Belgica·Lore SaenenPatrick Onghena
Jul 5, 2013·The British Journal of Educational Psychology·Kinga MorsanyiSylvie Serpell

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