The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies

Climatic Change
S LorenzP M Forster

Abstract

Many European countries have developed National Adaptation Strategies (NAS) to guide adaptation to the expected impacts of climate change. There is a need for more structured communication of the uncertainties related to future climate and its impacts so that adaptation actions can be planned and implemented effectively and efficiently. We develop a novel uncertainty assessment framework for comparing approaches to the inclusion and communication of physical science uncertainty, and use it to analyse ten European NAS. The framework is based on but modifies and integrates the notion of the "cascade of uncertainties" and the NUSAP (Numeral Unit Spread Assessment Pedigree) methodology to include the overarching assessment categories of Numerical Value, Spread, Depth and Substantiation. Our assessment indicates that there are marked differences between the NAS in terms of inclusion and communication of physical science uncertainty. We find that there is a bias towards the communication of quantitative uncertainties as opposed to qualitative uncertainties. Through the examination of the English and German NAS, we find that similar stages of development in adaptation policy planning can nevertheless result in differences in handling ...Continue Reading

References

May 7, 2005·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Jeroen P van der SluijsJames Risbey
Jun 16, 2007·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·D A StainforthL A Smith
Nov 30, 2007·Environmental Science & Technology·Baruch Fischhoff
Jul 30, 2011·Public Understanding of Science·Neil T GavinJessica Montgomery
Feb 14, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Anna Rabinovich, Thomas A Morton
Jun 20, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Nick Pidgeon

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Citations

Oct 16, 2015·Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Susanne LorenzJouni Paavola

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Software Mentioned

NUSAP

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