The contribution of pre-symptomatic infection to the transmission dynamics of COVID-2019

Wellcome Open Research
Yang LiuStefan Flasche

Abstract

Background: Pre-symptomatic transmission can be a key determinant of the effectiveness of containment and mitigation strategies for infectious diseases, particularly if interventions rely on syndromic case finding. For COVID-19, infections in the absence of apparent symptoms have been reported frequently alongside circumstantial evidence for asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic transmission. We estimated the potential contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to COVID-19 transmission. Methods: Using the probability for symptom onset on a given day inferred from the incubation period, we attributed the serial interval reported from Shenzen, China, into likely pre-symptomatic and symptomatic transmission. We used the serial interval derived for cases isolated more than 6 days after symptom onset as the no active case finding scenario and the unrestricted serial interval as the active case finding scenario. We reported the estimate assuming no correlation between the incubation period and the serial interval alongside a range indicating alternative assumptions of positive and negative correlation. Results: We estimated that 23% (range accounting for correlation: 12 - 28%) of transmissions in Shenzen may have originated from pre-symptomatic...Continue Reading

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Jul 28, 2020·Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness·Isaac Chun-Hai FungAndreas Handel
Dec 7, 2020·International Journal of Infectious Diseases : IJID : Official Publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases·Mohak GuptaSushma Bhatnagar
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Software Mentioned

COVID - 19 Serial Interval
R
nCoV

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