The currency and tempo of extinction

The American Naturalist
H M ReganM A Burgman

Abstract

This study examines estimates of extinction rates for the current purported biotic crisis and from the fossil record. Studies that compare current and geological extinctions sometimes use metrics that confound different sources of error and reflect different features of extinction processes. The per taxon extinction rate is a standard measure in paleontology that avoids some of the pitfalls of alternative approaches. Extinction rates reported in the conservation literature are rarely accompanied by measures of uncertainty, despite many elements of the calculations being subject to considerable error. We quantify some of the most important sources of uncertainty and carry them through the arithmetic of extinction rate calculations using fuzzy numbers. The results emphasize that estimates of current and future rates rely heavily on assumptions about the tempo of extinction and on extrapolations among taxa. Available data are unlikely to be useful in measuring magnitudes or trends in current extinction rates.

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Citations

Aug 13, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Paul R Ehrlich, Robert M Pringle
Aug 13, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Andy DobsonWalter Jetz
Jul 12, 2005·PLoS Biology·Anthony D BarnoskyEdward B Davis
May 10, 2001·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·D S Woodruff
Mar 14, 2002·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·John Alroy
Jun 5, 2003·The American Naturalist·Kate E JonesJohn L Gittleman
Jun 7, 2011·Comptes rendus biologies·Jean-Dominique Lebreton
Nov 1, 2005·Ecology Letters·Andrew Balmford, William Bond
Nov 21, 2012·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Nessa E O'ConnorIan Donohue
Jun 5, 2013·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Miguel NakamuraSalvador E Lluch-Cota
Sep 16, 2016·Science·Jonathan L PayneDouglas J McCauley
Aug 30, 2006·Ecology·Henrique M Pereira, Gretchen C Daily
Jan 27, 2017·Annual Review of Plant Biology·Mark VellendDov F Sax
Mar 4, 2011·Nature·Anthony D BarnoskyElizabeth A Ferrer
Sep 11, 2010·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Eduardo González-Olivares, Alejandro Rojas-Palma
Jul 28, 2019·Science·Mark J Costello
Oct 2, 2004·Science·Anthony D BarnoskyAlan B Shabel

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