PMID: 8972674Dec 1, 1996Paper

The dynamics of scarlet fever epidemics in England and Wales in the 19th century

Epidemiology and Infection
C J DuncanS Scott

Abstract

There was a marked rise in scarlet fever mortality in England and Wales in the mid-nineteenth century and spectral analysis of the registration details, 1847-80, shows that the interepidemic interval was 5-6 years, but after 1880 the endemic level fell and the fatal epidemics disappeared. The dynamics of the scarlet fever epidemics can be represented by a linearized mathematical model and because the system is lightly damped, it could be driven by an oscillation in susceptibility. Epidemics were significantly correlated with dry conditions in spring/summer (P < 0.001), suggesting that these produced a low amplitude oscillation in susceptibility which drove the system. Epidemics also correlated (P < 0.001) with an oscillation in wheat prices but at a lag of 3 years, suggesting that malnutrition during pregnancy caused increased susceptibility in the subsequent children which interacted synergistically with seasonal dry conditions. Scarlet fever mortality was sharply reduced after 1880 in parallel with falling wheat prices suggesting that the remarkable period of high scarlet fever mortality (1840-80) was dependent on poor nutritive levels during that time.

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Citations

Jul 12, 2007·International Journal of Health Geographics·Hélène BroutinJean-François Guégan
Sep 29, 2012·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Eric H Y LauJoseph T Wu
Mar 5, 2016·International Journal of Biometeorology·Yu DuanJing Wang
Nov 14, 1997·Theoretical Population Biology·C J DuncanS Scott
Nov 10, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Gehendra MaharaXiuhua Guo
Mar 25, 2009·The British Journal of Dermatology·J P McFaddenL Fry
Oct 31, 2013·The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal·Catarina Silva-CostaJose Melo-Cristino
Jul 1, 2012·Emerging Microbes & Infections·Samson Sy Wong, Kwok-Yung Yuen
Sep 1, 2017·BMC Infectious Diseases·Qi ZhangMinghao Zhou

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