The effect of cigarette price increases on cigarette consumption, tax revenue, and smoking-related death in Africa from 1999 to 2013

International Journal of Public Health
Li-Ming HoChi-Jung Hsieh

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of price hikes on cigarette consumption, tobacco tax revenues, and reduction in smoking-caused mortality in 36 African countries. Using panel data from the 1999-2013 Euromonitor International, the World Bank and the World Health Organization, we applied fixed-effects and random-effects regression models of panel data to estimate the elasticity of cigarette prices and simulate the effect of price fluctuations. Cigarette price elasticity was the highest for low-income countries and considerably lower for other African economies. The administered simulation shows that with an average annual cigarette price increase of 7.38%, the average annual cigarette consumption would decrease by 3.84%, and the average annual tobacco tax revenue would increase by 19.39%. By 2050, the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) will be the highest in South Africa, followed by the Democratic Republic of Congo, Madagascar, and Ethiopia. Excise tax increases have a significant effect on the reduction of smoking prevalence and the number of averted smoking-attributable deaths, Low-income countries are most affected by high taxation policies.

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Citations

Feb 14, 2019·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Mei ZhangLimin Wang
Aug 30, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Samuel AsareAidan Larsen
Dec 1, 2018·Substance Abuse Treatment, Prevention, and Policy·Maria NowakBozena Czarkowska-Paczek
May 1, 2021·Global Health Research and Policy·Mustapha ImmuranaAbdul-Aziz Iddrisu

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