The effect of contact heterogeneity and multiple routes of transmission on final epidemic size.

Mathematical Biosciences
Istvan Z KissRowland R Kao

Abstract

Heterogeneity in the number of potentially infectious contacts amongst members of a population increases the basic reproduction ratio (R(0)) and markedly alters disease dynamics compared to traditional mean-field models. Most models describing transmission on contact networks only account for one specific route of transmission. However, for many infectious diseases multiple routes of transmission exist. The model presented here captures transmission through a well defined network of contacts, complemented by mean-field type transmission amongst the nodes of the network that accounts for alternative routes of transmission. The impact of these combined transmission mechanisms on the final epidemic size is investigated analytically. The analytic predictions for the purely mean-field case and the transmission through the network-only case are confirmed by individual-based network simulations. There is a critical transmission potential above which an increased contribution of the mean-field type transmission increases the final epidemic size while an increased contribution of the transmission through the network decreases it. Below the critical transmission potential the opposite effect is observed.

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Citations

Apr 29, 2010·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Péter L SimonIstvan Z Kiss
Jun 15, 2011·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Michael TaylorIstvan Z Kiss
Feb 14, 2009·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Istvan Z KissRowland R Kao
Jan 7, 2011·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Viggo Andreasen
Feb 5, 2013·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Prapanporn RattanaIstvan Z Kiss
Sep 1, 2010·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Darren M Green, Istvan Z Kiss
Jun 12, 2010·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Thomas House, Matt J Keeling
Nov 25, 2011·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Tom LindströmUno Wennergren
May 17, 2007·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Caroline BuckeeSunetra Gupta
May 2, 2013·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Matthew Graham, Thomas House
Nov 5, 2014·Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE·Zhen JinHuaiping Zhu
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Mar 26, 2011·Interdisciplinary Perspectives on Infectious Diseases·Leon DanonMatthew C Vernon
Jul 6, 2012·The Veterinary Journal·Emilie ValléeFlavie Goutard
Dec 17, 2009·Mathematical Biosciences·Frank BallPieter Trapman
Nov 17, 2007·Theoretical Population Biology·K T D Eames
Apr 30, 2015·Scientific Reports·Changwang ZhangBenjamin M Chain
Oct 20, 2014·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Meili LiP van den Driessche
May 30, 2006·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Rowland R Kao
Apr 24, 2016·Mathematical Biosciences·Qingchu WuWenfang Zhu
Aug 25, 2015·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Cameron BrowneGlenn Webb
May 16, 2015·PloS One·Changwang ZhangBenjamin M Chain
Sep 16, 2015·PloS One·Amy HurfordJianhong Wu
Mar 22, 2018·PLoS Computational Biology·Narmada SambaturuNagasuma Chandra
Oct 20, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Francisco J ZagmuttAshley E Hill
Jun 17, 2021·Health Care Management Science·Atul PokharelAvi Silberschatz

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