The effect of different graphical and numerical likelihood formats on perception of likelihood and choice

Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making
Jurriaan P Oudhoff, Daniëlle R M Timmermans

Abstract

Quantitative risk information plays an important role in decision making about health. This study focuses on commonly used numerical and graphical formats and examines their effect on perception of different likelihoods and choice preferences. An experimental study was conducted with 192 participants, who evaluated 2 sets of 4 lotteries. Numerical formats to describe likelihood varied systematically between participants (X%, X-in-100, or 1-in-X). The effect of graphic formats (bar charts, icon charts) was assessed as a within-subjects factor. Dependent measures included perceived likelihood, choice preferences about participating in the lottery, and processing times. Numerical likelihoods presented as 1-in-X were processed fastest and were perceived as conveying larger likelihoods than the X-in-100 and percentages formats (mean response times in seconds: 5.65 v. 7.31 and 6.50; mean rating on a 1-9 scale: 4.38 v. 3.30 and 3.31, respectively). The 1-in-X format also evoked a stronger willingness to participate in a lottery than the 2 other numerical formats. The effect of adding graphs on perceived likelihood was moderated by numerical aptitude. Graphs reduced ratings of perceived likelihood of participants with lower numeracy, w...Continue Reading

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Citations

Apr 24, 2015·Prenatal Diagnosis·Stefania PighinLaura Cremonesi
Jan 18, 2017·Health Expectations : an International Journal of Public Participation in Health Care and Health Policy·Olga C DammanDanielle R M Timmermans
Oct 27, 2017·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Miroslav SirotaSudeep Bhatia
Jul 6, 2019·BMJ Open Ophthalmology·Louis ClearkinStephenie Tiew
Feb 26, 2019·Medical Decision Making : an International Journal of the Society for Medical Decision Making·Miroslav Sirota, Marie Juanchich
Jul 1, 2019·The Annals of Thoracic Surgery·Amelia MaigaEric L Grogan
Jan 30, 2021·Multiple Sclerosis and Related Disorders·Gurpreet K ReenDawn W Langdon
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