The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks.

Journal of the Royal Society, Interface
Marcel Salathé, Sebastian Bonhoeffer

Abstract

Many high-income countries currently experience large outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles despite the availability of highly effective vaccines. This phenomenon lacks an explanation in countries where vaccination rates are rising on an already high level. Here, we build on the growing evidence that belief systems, rather than access to vaccines, are the primary barrier to vaccination in high-income countries, and show how a simple opinion formation process can lead to clusters of unvaccinated individuals, leading to a dramatic increase in disease outbreak probability. In particular, the effect of clustering on outbreak probabilities is strongest when the vaccination coverage is close to the level required to provide herd immunity under the assumption of random mixing. Our results based on computer simulations suggest that the current estimates of vaccination coverage necessary to avoid outbreaks of vaccine-preventable diseases might be too low.

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Citations

Mar 17, 2011·Bulletin of Mathematical Biology·Chad R WellsChris T Bauch
Apr 1, 2009·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Sebastian FunkVincent A A Jansen
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Feb 18, 2011·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Thomas House
Jun 22, 2012·Journal of the Royal Society, Interface·Leon DanonMatt J Keeling
Oct 25, 2011·PLoS Computational Biology·Marcel Salathé, Shashank Khandelwal
Apr 13, 2012·PLoS Computational Biology·Chris T Bauch, Samit Bhattacharyya
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Mar 19, 2013·PLoS Computational Biology·Chad R WellsChris T Bauch
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