The effects of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols and greenhouse gases on twentieth century Sahel precipitation.

Scientific Reports
Rebecca Jean HermanYochanan Kushnir

Abstract

There is little scientific consensus on the importance of external climate forcings-including anthropogenic aerosols, volcanic aerosols, and greenhouse gases (GHG)-relative to each other and to internal variability in dictating past and future Sahel rainfall. We address this query by relating a 3-tiered multi-model mean (MMM) over the Climate Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 "twentieth century" and pre-Industrial control simulations to observations. The comparison of single-forcing and historical simulations highlights the importance of anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols over GHG in generating forced Sahel rainfall variability in models. However, the forced MMM only accounts for a small fraction of observed variance. A residual consistency test shows that simulated internal variability cannot explain the residual observed multidecadal variability, and points to model deficiency in simulating multidecadal variability in the forced response, internal variability, or both.

References

Jul 5, 2005·Science·Rowan T Sutton, Daniel L R Hodson
Dec 3, 2005·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·I M HeldT R Knutson
Oct 2, 2009·Nature·Bjorn Stevens, Graham Feingold
Apr 23, 2019·Climatic Change·Alessandra Giannini, Alexey Kaplan
Jun 27, 2019·Proceedings. Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences·Theodore G Shepherd

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
Precipitation

Software Mentioned

GISS
ESM
GPCC
CHEM
piC
MIROC

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