The effects of host contact network structure on pathogen diversity and strain structure

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Caroline O BuckeeSunetra Gupta

Abstract

For many important pathogens, mechanisms promoting antigenic variation, such as mutation and recombination, facilitate immune evasion and promote strain diversity. However, mathematical models have shown that host immune responses to polymorphic antigens can structure pathogen populations into discrete strains with nonoverlapping antigenic repertoires, despite recombination. Until now, models of strain evolution incorporating host immunity have assumed a randomly mixed host population. Here, we illustrate the effects of different host contact networks on strain diversity and dynamics by using a stochastic, spatially heterogeneous analogue of this model. For randomly mixed populations, our model confirms that cross-immunity to strains sharing alleles at antigenic loci may structure the pathogen population into discrete, nonoverlapping strains. However, this structure breaks down once the assumption of random mixing is relaxed, and an increasingly diverse pathogen population emerges as contacts between hosts become more localized. These results imply that host contact network structure plays a significant role in mediating the emergence of pathogen strain structure and dynamics.

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Citations

Sep 26, 2008·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Caroline O BuckeeMartin C J Maiden
Aug 31, 2011·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Caroline O BuckeeSunetra Gupta
May 17, 2007·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Caroline BuckeeSunetra Gupta
Feb 5, 2010·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Caroline O BuckeeKeith A Jolley
May 6, 2011·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Katia KoelleJonathan Mattingly
Jan 23, 2013·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Ben Ashby, Sunetra Gupta
Jun 15, 2007·PLoS Computational Biology·Juilee ThakarRéka Albert
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Jul 30, 2021·PloS One·Vitor M Marquioni, Marcus A M de Aguiar
Sep 16, 2021·PLoS Computational Biology·Christian Selinger, Samuel Alizon

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