The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and the US

BioRxiv : the Preprint Server for Biology
Michael WorobeyPhilippe Lemey

Abstract

Accurate understanding of the global spread of emerging viruses is critically important for public health response and for anticipating and preventing future outbreaks. Here, we elucidate when, where and how the earliest sustained SARS-CoV-2 transmission networks became established in Europe and the United States (US). Our results refute prior findings erroneously linking cases in January 2020 with outbreaks that occurred weeks later. Instead, rapid interventions successfully prevented onward transmission of those early cases in Germany and Washington State. Other, later introductions of the virus from China to both Italy and Washington State founded the earliest sustained European and US transmission networks. Our analyses reveal an extended period of missed opportunity when intensive testing and contact tracing could have prevented SARS-CoV-2 from becoming established in the US and Europe.

Citations

Sep 2, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Bethany DearloveMorgane Rolland
Jan 6, 2021·Journal of Applied Genetics·Szymon HryhorowiczEwa Ziętkiewicz
Nov 5, 2020·Nature Communications·Gage Kahl MorenoThomas C Friedrich

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