The estimated impact of natural immunity on the effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination

Vaccine
Suzette M MatthijsseSake J de Vlas

Abstract

Mathematical modelling is used to estimate the effectiveness of HPV vaccination. These estimates depend strongly on herd immunity and thus on naturally acquired immunity, a mechanism of which little is known. We estimated the impact of different vaccination strategies on HPV-16 and HPV-18 transmission and cervical cancer incidence in the Netherlands, considering different acquired immunity mechanisms. We used the STDSIM microsimulation model, and considered two mechanisms for acquired immunity after infection: (I) full immunity with variable duration; (II) cumulatively decreasing susceptibility to reinfection. Girls aged 13-16 years received vaccination (94.7% efficacy for HPV-16 and 92.3% for HPV-18) during a once-off catch-up campaign with 50% coverage, followed by annual vaccination of 12-year-old girls (60% coverage). Alternative vaccination scenarios included increased coverage, including boys, and lower vaccine efficacy. HPV-16 incidence reduced by 64% under mechanism I and 75% under mechanism II; HPV-18 incidence reduced by 58% and 73%, respectively, and these reductions lead to 48-56% fewer cervical cancer cases. Increasing coverage can lead to over 96% reduction in HPV incidence. Vaccinating boys reduced incidence by 7...Continue Reading

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Citations

Dec 17, 2015·Cancer·Brittany L BychkovskyPaul E Goss
Apr 11, 2021·Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention : a Publication of the American Association for Cancer Research, Cosponsored by the American Society of Preventive Oncology·Emi NaslaziInge M C M de Kok

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