The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes, species dispersal and movement barriers

Global Change Biology
Johannes RadingerChristian Wolter

Abstract

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use-driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species-specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up- vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled "moderate" and "severe" climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller-bodied...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 26, 2018·The Journal of Experimental Biology·Pavel HorkýKarel Douda
Sep 1, 2020·Global Change Biology·Heidi K ModAntoine Guisan
Nov 18, 2019·The Science of the Total Environment·Melanie MuellerJuergen Geist
Mar 17, 2021·Nature Communications·Valerio BarbarossaAafke M Schipper
Jun 23, 2021·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Lise ComteXingli Giam
Oct 7, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·Mark A Kirk, Frank J Rahel
Nov 26, 2021·The Science of the Total Environment·Katja SchmölzErich Tasser

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