The impact of competing risks on the observed rate of chronic hepatitis C progression

Gastroenterology
W Ray KimTerry M Therneau

Abstract

In previous studies about the natural history of chronic hepatitis C (CHC), age at the time of infection correlated with the rate at which hepatic fibrosis progresses. The presence of a competing risk, namely higher mortality from natural causes, may contribute to this observation. A simulation experiment was conducted to measure the magnitude of the effect of competing risks on the observed rate of fibrosis progression of CHC. A computer-based probabilistic model was created in which fibrosis of CHC progressed from stage 0 to 4 (cirrhosis) in 20-year-old and 50-year-old male and female cohorts. The rate of fibrosis progression was randomly assigned to each simulated individual from a distribution common to all age- and sex-specific cohorts. The cohorts also experienced mortality from natural causes according to the 2000 census data. The observed median time to reach cirrhosis for the 50-year-old cohorts was 20.4 +/- 0.2 years compared with 29.7 +/- 0.2 for the 20-year-old cohorts ( P < 0.01). The median time to reach cirrhosis in men was 24.2 +/- 0.6 years compared with 25.9 +/- 0.6 in women ( P = 0.01). Overall, the observed rate of progression was slowest among young women. Similarly, accelerating mortality from natural caus...Continue Reading

Citations

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