The impact of COVID-19 lockdown on dengue transmission in Sri Lanka; A natural experiment for understanding the influence of human mobility.

PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Prasad LiyanageHasitha Aravinda Tissera

Abstract

Dengue is one of the major public health problems in Sri Lanka. Its outbreak pattern depends on a multitude of drivers, including human mobility. Here we evaluate the impact of COVID-19 related mobility restriction (lockdown) on the risk of dengue in Sri Lanka. Two-stage hierarchical models were fitted using an interrupted time-series design based on the notified dengue cases, January 2015 to July 2020. In the first stage model, the district level impact was estimated using quasi-Poisson regression models while accounting for temporal trends. Estimates were pooled at zonal and national levels in the second stage model using meta-analysis. The influence of the extended period of school closure on dengue in children in the western province was compared to adults. Statistically significant and homogeneous reduction of dengue risk was observed at all levels during the lockdown. Overall an 88% reduction in risk (RR 0.12; 95% CI from 0.08 to 0.17) was observed at the national level. The highest impact was observed among children aged less than 19 years showing a 92% reduction (RR 0.8; 95% CI from 0.03 to 0.25). We observed higher impact in the dry zone having 91% reduction (RR 0.09; 95% CI from 0.05 to 0.15) compared to wet zone show...Continue Reading

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Citations

Aug 10, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Sean M CavanyT Alex Perkins
Aug 30, 2021·Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease·Gleice Margarete de Souza ConceiçãoFrancisco Chiaravalloti-Neto
Oct 9, 2021·PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases·Xinting LuWenbiao Hu

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