The impact of eliminating the global illicit cigarette trade on health and revenue

Addiction
Luk JoossensM Raw

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to update global estimates of the illicit cigarette trade, based on recent data, and estimate how many lives could be saved by eliminating it and how much revenue governments would gain. Our estimates of illicit market share are based on formal and informal sources. Our method for estimating the effect of eliminating the illicit trade on tobacco related deaths is based on West et al. with some minor modifications, and involves calculating the size of the illicit cigarette trade; the effect of eliminating it on the price of cigarettes and thus on consumption; the revenue governments are losing because of it; and the number of tobacco-related premature deaths that would be avoided if this illicit trade were eliminated. According to available estimates, the size of the illicit trade varies between countries from 1% to about 40-50% of the market, 11.6% globally, 16.8% in low-income and 9.8% in high-income countries. The total lost revenue is about $40.5 billion a year. If this illicit trade were eliminated governments would gain at least $31.3 billion a year, and from 2030 onwards more than 164,000 premature deaths a year would be avoided, the vast majority in middle- and low-income countries. The burd...Continue Reading

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Citations

Sep 19, 2012·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Corne van WalbeekHana Ross
Jan 17, 2013·Tobacco Control·Gary Jonas FooksKaren Evans-Reeves
Jan 24, 2013·BMC Public Health·Karsten Lunze, Luigi Migliorini
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Apr 2, 2015·Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health·Ali Ajmal, Veng Ian U
Jul 23, 2015·Drug Testing and Analysis·Ben J TscharkeJacobus P Gerber
Dec 10, 2017·Tobacco Control·Rijo M John, Hana Ross
Aug 24, 2018·Tobacco Control·Allen W A GallagherAnna B Gilmore
Jul 2, 2017·Tobacco Control·Bekir KaplanJoanna E Cohen
Mar 8, 2013·Tobacco Control·Hillel R AlpertGregory N Connolly
Feb 17, 2018·Globalization and Health·Joana Madureira Lima, Sandro Galea
Jan 9, 2019·Tobacco Prevention & Cessation·Frank HoughtonBruce Duncan
May 2, 2017·Tobacco Prevention & Cessation·Catherine HaightonAilsa Rutter
Dec 20, 2019·Journal of Psychoactive Drugs·Jeong Kyu LeeClive Tan
May 10, 2020·Tobacco Control·Hien Thi Thu NguyenToan Ngoc Pham
Jul 9, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·S M AbdullahKamran Siddiqi
Jun 21, 2019·Tobacco Control·Hana RossLaura Rossouw
Oct 11, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Vaida Liutkutė-GumarovJustina Vaitkevičiūtė
Nov 5, 2020·Tobacco Control·Mark GoodchildAnne-Marie Perucic
Jun 25, 2021·Tobacco Induced Diseases·Hana Ross, Luk Joossens

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