The impact of prior information on estimates of disease transmissibility using Bayesian tools

PloS One
Carlee B MoserLaura F White

Abstract

The basic reproductive number (R₀) and the distribution of the serial interval (SI) are often used to quantify transmission during an infectious disease outbreak. In this paper, we present estimates of R₀ and SI from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in South Africa using methods that expand upon an existing Bayesian framework. This expanded framework allows for the incorporation of additional information, such as contact tracing or household data, through prior distributions. The results for the R₀ and the SI from the influenza outbreak in South Africa were similar regardless of the prior information (R0 = 1.36-1.46, μ = 2.0-2.7, μ = mean of the SI). The estimates of R₀ and μ for the SARS outbreak ranged from 2.0-4.4 and 7.4-11.3, respectively, and were shown to vary depending on the use of contact tracing data. The impact of the contact tracing data was likely due to the small number of SARS cases relative to the size of the contact tracing sample.

References

Sep 1, 1990·Fertility and Sterility·R M WahJ A Hill
Mar 11, 2003·Child Development·Susan A Gelman, Lakshmi Raman
May 27, 2003·Science·Marc LipsitchMegan Murray
Apr 9, 2004·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Christophe FraserNeil M Ferguson
Sep 9, 2004·American Journal of Epidemiology·Jacco Wallinga, Peter Teunis
Dec 19, 2006·Mathematical Biosciences·Ake Svensson
Apr 9, 2008·Mathematical Biosciences·Eben KenahJames M Robins
Mar 13, 2009·Epidemiology·Benjamin J CowlingGabriel M Leung
Jul 25, 2009·Statistics in Medicine·David LunnNicky Best
Oct 15, 2009·Statistics in Medicine·Martyn Plummer
Nov 4, 2009·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Es McBrydeJe Fielding
Nov 4, 2009·Euro Surveillance : Bulletin Européen Sur Les Maladies Transmissibles = European Communicable Disease Bulletin·Bn ArcherBd Schoub
Nov 12, 2009·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Laura Forsberg WhiteMarcello Pagano
Mar 8, 2011·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Christl A DonnellyUNKNOWN pH1N1 Household Investigations Working Group
Jan 23, 2013·Epidemiology·Dennis E te BeestMichiel van Boven
Oct 3, 2013·BMC Medicine·Gerardo ChowellCécile Viboud
Oct 22, 2013·Epidemiology and Infection·M ShubinK Auranen
Nov 12, 2013·Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses·Scott A McDonaldMirjam E Kretzschmar

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

May 28, 2020·American Journal of Epidemiology·Yicheng MaLaura F White
Jan 1, 2016·Statistical Methods in Medical Research·Carlee B Moser, Laura F White
Dec 11, 2020·PLoS Computational Biology·Katelyn M GosticSarah Cobey
Oct 10, 2020·American Journal of Epidemiology·Laura F WhiteMarcello Pagano
Oct 21, 2020·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Megan O'DriscollIlaria Dorigatti

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Software Mentioned

OpenBUGS
BRugs
R

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.

Related Papers

Emerging Infectious Diseases
Louis Y ChanJoseph J Y Sung
Emerging Themes in Epidemiology
Laura F WhiteMarcello Pagano
Journal of Clinical Virology : the Official Publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology
Tommy W C LeungWilina Lim
Expert Review of Vaccines
Tristan Clark, Iain Stephenson
© 2021 Meta ULC. All rights reserved