DOI: 10.1101/19012765Nov 27, 2019Paper

The impact of public health interventions on the future prevalence of ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae:a population based mathematical modelling study

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
L. Salzar-VizcayaRami Sommerstein

Abstract

Background: Extended-spectrum betalactamase (ESBL-) producing K. pneumoniae is one of the most common causes of infections with antimicrobial resistant bacteria worldwide. The spread of colonization of humans with this pathogen is on the rise. The future prevalence of colonization with ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae, and the potential of public health interventions to lower it, remain uncertain. Methods: Based on detailed data on antimicrobial consumption and susceptibility systematically recorded for over 13 years in a Swiss region, we developed a mathematical model to i) reconstruct the observed course of colonization with ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae; and ii) to assess the potential impact of public health interventions on future trends in colonization. Results: Simulated prevalence of colonization with ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae stabilized in the near future when rates of antimicrobial consumption and in-hospital transmission remained stable in the main analyses (simulated prevalence in 2025 was 5.3% (5.0%-9.1%) in hospitals and 2.7% (2.1%-4.6%) in the community versus 5.6% (5.1%-9.5%) and 2.8% (2.2%-5.0%) in 2019). The largest changes in future prevalence were observed in simulations that assumed changes in overall antimic...Continue Reading

Related Concepts

Related Feeds

Carbapenems

Carbapenems are members of the beta lactam class of antibiotics and are used for the treatment of severe or high-risk bacterial infections. Discover the latest research on carbapenems here.

BioRxiv & MedRxiv Preprints

BioRxiv and MedRxiv are the preprint servers for biology and health sciences respectively, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory. Here are the latest preprint articles (which are not peer-reviewed) from BioRxiv and MedRxiv.

Carbapenems (ASM)

Carbapenems are members of the beta lactam class of antibiotics and are used for the treatment of severe or high-risk bacterial infections. Discover the latest research on carbapenems here.