DOI: 10.1101/19003434Oct 10, 2019Paper

The impact of reactive mass vaccination campaigns on measles outbreaks in the Katanga region, Democratic Republic of Congo

MedRxiv : the Preprint Server for Health Sciences
Sebastian FunkV. B. Rao


The Katanga region in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been struck by repeated epidemics of measles. In many of the affected health zones, reactive mass vaccination campaigns were conducted in response to the outbreaks. Here, we attempted to determine how effective campaigns were in curtailing a large outbreak in 2015. Using a model of measles transmission we compared observed case numbers to a counterfactual of no campaigns, by first fitting a model to the data including the campaigns and then re-running this without vaccination. Focusing on eight of the 68 health zones in the Katanga region, we estimated the reactive campaigns to have reduced the size of the outbreaks by approximately 21,000 (IQR: 16,000--27,000; 95% CI: 8300--38,000), or 21% (IQR: 17%--25%, 95% CI: 9.3%--34%) of possible measles cases. There was considerable heterogeneity in the impact of campaigns, with campaigns startgin earlier after the start of an outbreak being more impactful. We further sought to establish whether the spatial pattern of the outbreak could have been determined in advance to help prioritise areas for vaccination campaigns and speed up the response. The best predictors of outbreak size among all the health zones were vaccinatio...Continue Reading

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