PMID: 8581117Jan 5, 1996Paper

The incidence and prevalence of AIDS and prevalence of other severe HIV disease in England and Wales for 1995 to 1999: projections using data to the end of 1994

Communicable Disease Report. CDR Review

Abstract

Projections of the future incidence of AIDS cases are needed for planning purposes, to help set research priorities, and to describe the most likely pattern of transmission of HIV infection in the past that underlies the observed and projected incidence of AIDS. Earlier reports of projections for England and Wales were published in 1988, 1990, and 1993. During 1995 a group of experts has worked, using AIDS case reports to the end of December 1994, to make new projections to the end of 1999. The expert group concludes that, after adjustment for underreporting, there will be between 1840 and 2300 new cases of AIDS in England and Wales in 1997, and between 1760 and 2455 new AIDS cases in 1999. For planning purposes, a figure of 2025 new AIDS cases is projected for 1997, and 2010 for 1999. The planning projections for new AIDS cases in 1997 and 1999 among the main exposure categories, after adjustment for underreporting, are as follows: homo/bisexual males 1305 and 1235, people exposed heterosexually 490 and 525, and injecting drug users 140 and 155. Between 1995 and 1999, it is expected that new AIDS cases may fall by 7% in homo/bisexual males, and rise by 25% in the heterosexual exposure category and by 29% in injecting drug user...Continue Reading

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