The Influence of Alternative Outcomes on Gut-Level Perceptions of Certainty

Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes
Paul D. Windschitl, Michael E. Young

Abstract

Recent research has demonstrated that the perceived certainty of a focal outcome depends not only on the overall amount of evidence supporting the alternatives to the focal outcome, but also on how that evidence is distributed across those alternatives (e.g., Windschitl & Wells, 1998). Three experiments replicated this alternative-outcomes effect across a variety of evidence distributions and investigated a heuristic comparison account for the effect. Participants provided gut-level certainty estimates for winning hypothetical raffles in which they and several other players held specified numbers of tickets. Results revealed that alternative-outcomes effects are not dependent on variations in the rank-order status of the focal outcome (Experiment 1) and are reliable but reduced in magnitude when the focal outcome is the least likely outcome (Experiment 2). Also, consistent with a core premise of the heuristic comparison account, evidence supporting the strongest alternative outcome was shown to play the primary role in producing alternative-outcomes effects (Experiment 3). Copyright 2001 Academic Press.

References

May 1, 1990·Memory & Cognition·L R Van Wallendael, R Hastie
Dec 22, 1999·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·P D Windschitl, E U Weber
Mar 9, 2000·Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes·P D Windschitl
May 9, 2001·Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes·Karl Halvor Teigen

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Citations

May 11, 2002·Journal of Personality and Social Psychology·Paul D WindschitlAnnette R Flugstad
Jan 23, 2004·Journal of Experimental Psychology. Learning, Memory, and Cognition·Paul D Windschitl, John R Chambers
Apr 30, 2016·Social and Personality Psychology Compass·Jennifer M Taber, William M P Klein
Jul 2, 2003·Acta Psychologica·Michael R P Dougherty, Jennifer E Hunter
Dec 4, 2003·Memory & Cognition·Michael R P Dougherty, Jennifer Hunter
Aug 19, 2020·Astrobiology·Andrew Pohorille, Joanna Sokolowska

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