The International Heart Transplant Survival Algorithm (IHTSA): a new model to improve organ sharing and survival

PloS One
Johan NilssonBodil Andersson

Abstract

Heart transplantation is life saving for patients with end-stage heart disease. However, a number of factors influence how well recipients and donor organs tolerate this procedure. The main objective of this study was to develop and validate a flexible risk model for prediction of survival after heart transplantation using the largest transplant registry in the world. We developed a flexible, non-linear artificial neural networks model (IHTSA) and classification and regression tree to comprehensively evaluate the impact of recipient-donor variables on survival over time. We analyzed 56,625 heart-transplanted adult patients, corresponding to 294,719 patient-years. We compared the discrimination power with three existing scoring models, donor risk index (DRI), risk-stratification score (RSS) and index for mortality prediction after cardiac transplantation (IMPACT). The accuracy of the model was excellent (C-index 0.600 [95% CI: 0.595-0.604]) with predicted versus actual 1-year, 5-year and 10-year survival rates of 83.7% versus 82.6%, 71.4%-70.8%, and 54.8%-54.3% in the derivation cohort; 83.7% versus 82.8%, 71.5%-71.1%, and 54.9%-53.8% in the internal validation cohort; and 84.5% versus 84.4%, 72.9%-75.6%, and 57.5%-57.5% in the ...Continue Reading

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Software Mentioned

Neural Network Toolbox and Toolbox
Perl
Matlab
Stata MP
MATLAB Distribution Computing Server
IHTSA

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