The Kentucky SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model: reaching Healthy People 2010 goals through policy change

Southern Medical Journal
David T LevyRaeAnne E Davis

Abstract

Healthy People (HP) 2010 has a goal of reducing adult smoking prevalence to 12% by 2010. Kentucky, with the highest adult smoking rates (28.7% versus a US average of 20.9%) and weak tobacco control policies, has the potential to reduce smoking by implementing stricter policies. The SimSmoke tobacco control policy model is applied to Kentucky, validated over 1993 to 2003. Smoking prevalence evolves over time through initiation and cessation, as behaviors influenced by tobacco control policies. SimSmoke predicts well over the pre-2007 period, including larger annual decreases in latter years. With policies suggested by HP 2010 goals, smoking prevalence is projected to fall to about 19% by 2011 and 14% by 2026; more than 17,000 smoking-attributable deaths would be avoided by 2026. SimSmoke suggests policies can have a large impact on smoking rates and save lives in Kentucky. If HP 2010 goals will be met, states such as Kentucky need to implement strong tobacco control policies.

References

Jul 6, 2004·Journal of Public Health Management and Practice : JPHMP·David T LevyJoseph Gitchell
Feb 2, 2006·American Journal of Public Health·David T LevyHye-Ryeon Lee
Jul 27, 2007·Policy, Politics & Nursing Practice·Ellen J HahnVeronica Nunley

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Citations

Apr 5, 2011·Health Promotion Practice·Donald W HelmeEllen J Hahn
May 16, 2015·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Shari P FeirmanAndrea C Villanti
Oct 25, 2012·American Journal of Preventive Medicine·David T LevyDavid B Abrams
Mar 5, 2010·American Journal of Preventive Medicine·David T LevyDavid B Abrams
Sep 20, 2015·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·David LevyYian Zhang
May 24, 2014·International Journal of Behavioral Medicine·Jessica G BurkePatricia L Mabry
Aug 3, 2012·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·David T LevyUte Mons
Mar 25, 2017·Nicotine & Tobacco Research : Official Journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco·Shari P FeirmanAndrea C Villanti
Apr 15, 2009·Current Opinion in Psychiatry

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