The limits of earthquake early warning: Timeliness of ground motion estimates

Science Advances
Sarah E MinsonElizabeth S Cochran

Abstract

The basic physics of earthquakes is such that strong ground motion cannot be expected from an earthquake unless the earthquake itself is very close or has grown to be very large. We use simple seismological relationships to calculate the minimum time that must elapse before such ground motion can be expected at a distance from the earthquake, assuming that the earthquake magnitude is not predictable. Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are in operation or development for many regions around the world, with the goal of providing enough warning of incoming ground shaking to allow people and automated systems to take protective actions to mitigate losses. However, the question of how much warning time is physically possible for specified levels of ground motion has not been addressed. We consider a zero-latency EEW system to determine possible warning times a user could receive in an ideal case. In this case, the only limitation on warning time is the time required for the earthquake to evolve and the time for strong ground motion to arrive at a user's location. We find that users who wish to be alerted at lower ground motion thresholds will receive more robust warnings with longer average warning times than users who receive w...Continue Reading

References

Jul 21, 2006·Nature·Paul Rydelek, Shigeki Horiuchi
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Sep 25, 2017·Science·M-A MeierT H Heaton
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Citations

Mar 30, 2019·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kazuya NakayachiMaximilian Dixon
Nov 23, 2019·Science·Elizabeth S Cochran, Allen L Husker
Jun 1, 2019·Science Advances·Diego Melgar, Gavin P Hayes
May 28, 2020·Sensors·Ting-Yu Hsu, C P Nieh
Apr 6, 2019·Science Advances·Robert J SteedAngelo Strollo
Jan 3, 2020·Geophysical Research Letters·D E GoldbergY Bock
Feb 23, 2019·Scientific Reports·Sarah E MinsonMen-Andrin Meier
Mar 6, 2021·Nature Communications·Wenhuan KuangJie Zhang
Jun 19, 2021·PeerJ. Computer Science·Rabia TehseenAdnan Abid

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Software Mentioned

JMA
ShakeAlert
SASMEX

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