The next mesothelioma wave: mortality trends and forecast to 2030 in Brazil

Cancer Epidemiology
E AlgrantiMarco Antonio Bussacos

Abstract

There are limited data on mesothelioma mortality in industrializing countries, where, at present, most of the asbestos consumption occurs. To analyze temporal trends and to calculate mortality rates from mesothelioma and cancer of the pleura in Brazil from 2000 to 2012 and to estimate future mortality rates. We retrieved records of deaths from mesothelioma (ICD-10C45) and cancer of the pleura (ICD-10C38.4) from 2000 to 2012 in adults aged 30 years and over. Crude and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated. Rate ratios of mean crude mortality for selected municipalities were compared to the Brazilian rate. A regression was carried out of the annual number of deaths against asbestos consumption using a Generalized Additive Model (GAM). The best model was chosen to estimate the future burden and peak period of deaths. There were 929C45 and 1379 C38.4 deaths. The ratio of men to women for C45 was 1.4. A positive trend in C45 numbers was observed in Brazil (p=0.0012), particularly in São Paulo (p=0.0004) where ASMRs presented an increasing linear trend (p=0.0344). Selected municipalities harboring asbestos manipulation presented 3.7-11 fold rate ratios of C45 compared to Brazil. GAM presented best fits for latencies...Continue Reading

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Citations

May 18, 2016·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Daniela MarsiliEduardo Algranti
Jul 9, 2016·International Journal of Occupational and Environmental Health·Matthew J SoebergNico van Zandwijk
Jun 18, 2016·Occupational and Environmental Medicine·Carolina MensiDario Consonni
Jan 9, 2018·The Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews·Omar Abdel-RahmanMostafa Eltobgy
Mar 30, 2019·Annals of Global Health·Eduardo AlgrantiDaniela Marsili
Jan 23, 2020·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Enrico OddoneFrancesco Barone-Adesi
May 26, 2020·European Journal of Cardio-thoracic Surgery : Official Journal of the European Association for Cardio-thoracic Surgery·Isabelle OpitzGiuseppe Cardillo
Jul 16, 2020·Revista gaúcha de enfermagem·Christiane BreyDario Consonni
Feb 16, 2017·International Journal of Oncology·Sian CreganSteven G Gray
Jul 20, 2019·International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health·Gisele Aparecida FernandesTatiana Natasha Toporcov
Oct 4, 2018·Cadernos de saúde pública·Luciana Puchalski KalinkeDario Consonni
May 27, 2020·The European Respiratory Journal·Arnaud ScherpereelPaul Martin Putora
Apr 3, 2018·American Journal of Industrial Medicine·Vilma S SantanaDario Consonni
Jul 23, 2021·Occupational Medicine·V S SantanaE Algranti
Aug 12, 2021·American Journal of Industrial Medicine·Gisele A FernandesTatiana N Toporcov
Jun 1, 2017·Salud colectiva·Andrés TrottaMarcio Alazraqui

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