The number of undocumented immigrants in the United States: Estimates based on demographic modeling with data from 1990 to 2016

PloS One
Mohammad M Fazel-ZarandiEdward H Kaplan

Abstract

We apply standard demographic principles of inflows and outflows to estimate the number of undocumented immigrants in the United States, using the best available data, including some that have only recently become available. Our analysis covers the years 1990 to 2016. We develop an estimate of the number of undocumented immigrants based on parameter values that tend to underestimate undocumented immigrant inflows and overstate outflows; we also show the probability distribution for the number of undocumented immigrants based on simulating our model over parameter value ranges. Our conservative estimate is 16.7 million for 2016, nearly fifty percent higher than the most prominent current estimate of 11.3 million, which is based on survey data and thus different sources and methods. The mean estimate based on our simulation analysis is 22.1 million, essentially double the current widely accepted estimate. Our model predicts a similar trajectory of growth in the number of undocumented immigrants over the years of our analysis, but at a higher level. While our analysis delivers different results, we note that it is based on many assumptions. The most critical of these concern border apprehension rates and voluntary emigration rates...Continue Reading

References

Jan 16, 2009·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Lawrence M WeinArik Motskin
Feb 1, 2011·Population Research and Policy Review·Jennifer Van Hook, Weiwei Zhang
Aug 21, 2013·The International Migration Review·Robert Warren, John Robert Warren
Oct 11, 2016·AJS; American Journal of Sociology·Douglas S MasseyKaren A Pren

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Citations

May 19, 2020·The American Journal of Bioethics : AJOB·Alex Dubov, Steven Shoptawb
Dec 9, 2020·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Michael T LightJason P Robey
Mar 24, 2021·Journal of Immigrant and Minority Health·Thania GalvanLuz M Garcini
Dec 30, 2020·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Scott Rodilitz, Edward H Kaplan

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