PMID: 11914318Mar 27, 2002Paper

The polio model. Does it apply to polio?

International Journal of Epidemiology
Nete Munk NielsenMads Melbye

Abstract

According to the polio model, severity of disease increases with age at infection. Firstborn children and people belonging to small families are generally infected later and should accordingly have a higher risk of severe polio. However, this model does contradict other explanations of severity of childhood infections including the intensive-exposure model. To evaluate the deductions from the polio model we performed a study based on medical records from 5590 historical polio cases from the county of Copenhagen 1940-1953. The relative risk (RR) of polio according to age, birth order and sibship size was evaluated using census data from 1940 and 1950. Severity of polio measured as frequency of paralysis or mortality did not show a steady increase with age, but a U-shaped curve being highest for the youngest as well as the oldest patients. The incidence of polio and paralytic polio was higher in families with several children compared with single children (RR = 1.13, 95% CI : 1.0-1.3). Furthermore, the incidence was higher in later-born children (P(trend) < 0.0001). However, as predicted from the intensive-exposure model, second-born children aged 1-4 years in two-child families had a higher risk of paralytic polio than first-bor...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 21, 2005·Journal of Manipulative and Physiological Therapeutics·Jason W BusseJames B Campbell
Aug 23, 2012·Clinical Infectious Diseases : an Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America·Christopher J GregoryKatrina Kretsinger
Mar 27, 2002·International Journal of Epidemiology·Jon Kim Andrus
Feb 11, 2005·The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal·Anja PoulsenPeter Aaby

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