The potential impact of future climate on the distribution of European yew (Taxus baccata L.) in the Hyrcanian Forest region (Iran)

International Journal of Biometeorology
Kourosh AhmadiJens-Christian Svenning

Abstract

The Hyrcanian Forest region is rich in relict species, and endemic and endangered species. Although there are concerns about climate change, its influence on tree species in the Hyrcanian forests in the north of Iran is still unidentified. Taxus baccata is among the few conifer species found in the region, and the present study aims to evaluate the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of T. baccata. For this purpose, we used ensemble species distribution modeling with ten algorithms and based on two geographic extents (global and regional) and climate data for different climate change scenarios. For the regional extent, we calibrated the models in Hyrcanian forests including the three provinces in the north of Iran. For the global extent, we calibrated the models on the whole range distribution of T. baccata. In both cases, we applied the models to predict the distribution of T. baccata in northern Iran under current, 2050, and 2070 climates. In regional extent modeling, precipitation of coldest quarter and in global extent modeling temperature seasonality emerged as the most important variables. Present environmental suitability estimates indicated that the suitable area for T. baccata in Hyrcanian forests is...Continue Reading

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Mar 5, 2020·Ecology and Evolution·Ditte Arp JensenJens-Christian Svenning

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Citations

Aug 27, 2021·Journal of Environmental Management·Saeid JanizadehJohn P Tiefenbacher

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