The potential of agricultural land management to contribute to lower global surface temperatures

Science Advances
Allegra MayerWhendee L Silver

Abstract

Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) combined with emission reduction is necessary to keep climate warming below the internationally agreed upon 2°C target. Soil organic carbon sequestration through agricultural management has been proposed as a means to lower atmospheric CO2 concentration, but the magnitude needed to meaningfully lower temperature is unknown. We show that sequestration of 0.68 Pg C year-1 for 85 years could lower global temperature by 0.1°C in 2100 when combined with a low emission trajectory [Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6]. This value is potentially achievable using existing agricultural management approaches, without decreasing land area for food production. Existing agricultural mitigation approaches could lower global temperature by up to 0.26°C under RCP 2.6 or as much as 25% of remaining warming to 2°C. This declines to 0.14°C under RCP 8.5. Results were sensitive to assumptions regarding the duration of carbon sequestration rates, which is poorly constrained by data. Results provide a framework for the potential role of agricultural soil organic carbon sequestration in climate change mitigation.

References

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Citations

Oct 19, 2019·Waste Management & Research : the Journal of the International Solid Wastes and Public Cleansing Association, ISWA·Victor Hugo Argentino de Morais Vieira, Dácio Roberto Matheus
Jan 12, 2021·Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America·S A BillingsW Wieder
Aug 10, 2021·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·W L SilverA R Jones

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Software Mentioned

Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP )

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