The predictive accuracy of intertemporal-choice models

The British Journal of Mathematical and Statistical Psychology
Kodi B Arfer, Christian C Luhmann

Abstract

How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision-making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross-validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100-trial binary-decision task. Many models achieved the apparent ceiling of 85% accuracy, even with smaller training sets. When noise was added to the training set, however, a simple logistic-regression model we call the difference model performed particularly well. In many situations, between-model differences in predictive accuracy may be small, contrary to long-standing controversy over the modelling question in research on intertemporal choice, but the simplicity and robustness of the difference model recommend it to future use.

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Citations

Sep 27, 2020·Psychometrika·Sangil LeeJoseph W Kable
Feb 25, 2017·Frontiers in Psychology·Kodi B Arfer, Christian C Luhmann

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