Dec 11, 2008

The predictive validity of empirical Bayes estimates of road safety

Accident; Analysis and Prevention
R Elvik

Abstract

This paper examines the predictive validity of empirical Bayes (EB) estimates of road safety. The predictive performance of EB-estimates was tested by applying five versions of EB-estimates of road safety: (1) A simple estimate derived from the empirical distribution of accidents in a population of sites, by which the number of accidents predicted for period 2 for sites that recorded k accidents in period 1 equals the number of accidents for sites that recorded k+1 accidents in period 1. (2) Estimates derived from the parameters of a negative binomial distribution fitted to an empirical distribution of accidents in a population of sites by means of the method of moments. (3) Estimates derived from the parameters of a negative binomial distribution fitted to an empirical distribution of accidents in a population of sites by means of the maximum likelihood technique. (4) Estimates derived by combining the predictions of an accident prediction model and the recorded number of accidents for a site. (5) Estimates derived by combining the predictions of a different version of an accident prediction model and the recorded number of accidents for a site. All versions of EB-estimates are compared to the traditional, naïve assumption of ...Continue Reading

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Citations

Mentioned in this Paper

Bayesian Prediction
Observation - Diagnostic Procedure
Traffic Accidents

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