The Price equation and the causal analysis of evolutionary change.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences
Samir Okasha, Jun Otsuka

Abstract

Though the Price equation in itself is simply a statistical identity, biologists have often adopted a 'causal interpretation' of the equation, in the sense that its component terms have been supposed to correspond to distinct causal processes in evolution, such as natural selection and transmission bias. In this paper, we bring the issue of causal interpretation to the fore, by studying the conditions under which it is legitimate to read causal meaning into the Price equation. We argue that only if substantive assumptions about causal structure are made, which can be represented in the form of a causal model, can the component terms of the Price equation be interpreted as causally meaningful. We conclude with a reflection on the epistemic uses of the Price equation, emphasizing the difference between the description, explanation and prediction of evolutionary change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Fifty years of the Price equation'.

References

Apr 1, 1972·Annals of Human Genetics·G R Price
Aug 1, 1970·Nature·G R Price
Aug 7, 1995·Journal of Theoretical Biology·S A Frank
Aug 7, 1995·Journal of Theoretical Biology·G R Price
Aug 16, 2011·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Matthijs van VeelenMartijn Egas
Mar 30, 2017·The American Naturalist·David C Queller
Dec 1, 1997·Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution·Steven A Frank

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Citations

Mar 10, 2020·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Jussi LehtonenHeikki Helanterä
Sep 6, 2020·Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution·Jonathan M HenshawAdam G Jones
Mar 2, 2021·Behavioural Processes·M Borgstede, F Eggert

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