The projected volume of primary and revision total knee arthroplasty will place an immense burden on future health care systems over the next 30 years.

Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy : Official Journal of the ESSKA
Alexander KlugKarl Philipp Kutzner

Abstract

Total knee arthroplasty (TKA) rates have increased substantially in the recent decades worldwide, with Germany being one of the leading countries in the prevalence of TKA. The aim of this study was to provide an overview of treatment changes during the last decade and to project the expected burden of primary and revision TKA (rTKA) for the next 30 years. Comprehensive nationwide data from Germany was used to quantify primary and revision TKA rates as a function of age and gender. Projections were performed with use of a Poisson regression models and a combination of exponential smoothing and autoregressive integrated moving average models on historical procedure rates in relation to official population projections from 2020 to 2050. The incidence rate of primary TKAs is projected to increase by around 43% to 299 per 100,000 inhabitants [95% CI 231-368], leading to a projected total number of 225,957 primary TKAs in 2050 (95% CI 178,804-276,442). This increase has been related to a growing number of TKA performed in male patients, with the highest increase modelled in patients between 50 and 65 years of age. At the same time, the annual total number of revision procedures is forecast to increase even more rapidly by almost 90%,...Continue Reading

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Citations

Oct 22, 2020·Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy : Official Journal of the ESSKA·Colin Y L WoonGeoffrey Westrich
Jan 19, 2021·Journal of Orthopaedics·Sebastian Philipp BoelchMaximilian Rudert
Apr 9, 2021·BMC Musculoskeletal Disorders·Jake von HintzeAntti Eskelinen
Jul 14, 2021·Archives of Orthopaedic and Trauma Surgery·Vivek SinghWilliam J Long
Oct 31, 2021·Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy : Official Journal of the ESSKA·Christian KlemtYoung-Min Kwon
Nov 6, 2021·Der Orthopäde·D RakM Rudert

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Methods Mentioned

BETA
total hip arthroplasty

Software Mentioned

R Foundation for Statistical
R Development Core Team
R

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