The response of migratory populations to phenological change: a Migratory Flow Network modelling approach

The Journal of Animal Ecology
Caz M TaylorRichard J Hall

Abstract

Declines in migratory species have been linked to anthropogenic climate change through phenological mismatch, which arises due to asynchronies between the timing of life-history events (such as migration) and the phenology of available resources. Long-distance migratory species may be particularly vulnerable to phenological change in their breeding ranges, since the timing of migration departure is based on environmental cues at distant non-breeding sites. Migrants may, however, be able to adjust migration speed en route to the breeding grounds, and thus, ability of migrants to update their timing of migration may depend critically on stopover frequency during migration; however, understanding how migratory strategy influences population dynamics is hindered by a lack of predictive models explicitly linking habitat quality to demography and movement patterns throughout the migratory cycle. Here, we present a novel modelling framework, the Migratory Flow Network (MFN), in which the seasonally varying attractiveness of breeding, winter and stopover regions drives the direction and timing of migration based on a simple general flux law. We use the MFN to investigate how populations respond to shifts in breeding site phenology base...Continue Reading

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Citations

Jun 3, 2016·Integrative and Comparative Biology·Richard J HallSonia Altizer
Nov 9, 2019·Journal of Biological Dynamics·Hidekazu YoshiokaMasayuki Fujihara
May 7, 2020·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Silke BauerZoltan Barta
Aug 16, 2018·Royal Society Open Science·Andrea KölzschBernd Blasius
Oct 13, 2018·The Science of the Total Environment·Jesús NadalAntoni Margalida
Oct 5, 2021·Global Change Biology·Kieran B LawrenceStephen G Willis

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