The role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options, with special emphasis on terrorism risk

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
Terje Aven, Ortwin Renn

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to discuss the role of quantitative risk assessments for characterizing risk and uncertainty and delineating appropriate risk management options. Our main concern is situations (risk problems) with large potential consequences, large uncertainties, and/or ambiguities (related to the relevance, meaning, and implications of the decision basis; or related to the values to be protected and the priorities to be made), in particular terrorism risk. We look into the scientific basis of the quantitative risk assessments and the boundaries of the assessments in such a context. Based on a risk perspective that defines risk as uncertainty about and severity of the consequences (or outcomes) of an activity with respect to something that humans value we advocate a broad risk assessment approach characterizing uncertainties beyond probabilities and expected values. Key features of this approach are qualitative uncertainty assessment and scenario building instruments.

References

Nov 14, 2001·The Netherlands Journal of Medicine·F J HesR B van der Luijt
Jan 18, 2003·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn
Jun 9, 2004·Clinical Biochemistry·Gillian Lockitch
May 7, 2005·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·George E Apostolakis, Douglas M Lemon
Feb 16, 2007·European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation : Official Journal of the European Society of Cardiology, Working Groups on Epidemiology & Prevention and Cardiac Rehabilitation and Exercise Physiology·Helmut GohlkeKlaus Held
May 22, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven
Jul 21, 2007·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Henry H Willis
Feb 29, 2008·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Seth D GuikemaJeremy P Goffelt

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Citations

Dec 10, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven, Seth Guikema
Mar 13, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven
May 14, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Michael R GreenbergTayfur Altiok
Sep 13, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·J ParkI Linkov
Mar 6, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven, Ortwin Renn
Apr 12, 2011·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven
Nov 17, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven
Apr 11, 2015·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Andrew G HuffAmy Kircher
Aug 12, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Terje Aven
Jun 5, 2010·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Barry Charles EzellAndrew J Collins
Dec 22, 2012·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Xiaojun Shan, Jun Zhuang
Nov 7, 2019·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Thomas Ying-Jeh ChenSeth David Guikema
Jan 27, 2019·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Linn SvegrupHenrik Hassel
Aug 16, 2015·Medicine, Health Care, and Philosophy·Anna Genske, Sabrina Engel-Glatter

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