The role of residence times in two-patch dengue transmission dynamics and optimal strategies

Journal of Theoretical Biology
Sunmi Lee, Carlos Castillo-Chavez

Abstract

The reemergence and geographical dispersal of vector-borne diseases challenge global health experts around the world and in particular, dengue poses increasing difficulties in the Americas, due in part to explosive urban and semi-urban growth, increases of within and between region mobility, the absence of a vaccine, and the limited resources available for public health services. In this work, a simple deterministic two-patch model is introduced to assess the impact of dengue transmission dynamics in heterogeneous environments. The two-patch system models the movement (e.g. urban versus rural areas residence times) of individuals between and within patches/environments using residence-time matrices with entries that budget within and between host patch relative residence times, under the assumption that only the human budgets their residence time across regions. Three scenarios are considered: (i) resident hosts in Patch i visit patch j, where i≠j but not the other way around, a scenario referred to as unidirectional motion; (ii) symmetric bi-directional motion; and (iii) asymmetric bi-directional motion. Optimal control theory is used to identify and evaluate patch-specific control measures aimed at reducing dengue prevalence ...Continue Reading

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Citations

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