The schedule effect: can recurrent peak infections be reduced without vaccines, quarantines or school closings?

Mathematical Biosciences
Danilo R DiedrichsDoeke D Buursma

Abstract

Using a basic, two transmission level seasonal SIR model, we introduce mathematical evidence for the schedule effect which asserts that major recurring peak infections can be significantly reduced by modification of the traditional school calendar. The schedule effect is observed first in simulated time histories of the infectious population. Schedules with higher average transmission rate may exhibit reduced peak infections. Splitting vacations changes the period of the oscillating transmission function and can confine limit cycles in the proportion susceptible/proportion infected phase plane. Numerical analysis of the phase plane shows the relationship between the transmission period and the maximum recurring infection peaks and period of the response. For certain transmission periods, this response may exhibit period-doubling and chaos, leading to increased peaks. Non-monotonic infectious response is also observed in conjunction with changing birth rate. We discuss how to take these effects into consideration to design an optimum school schedule with particular reference to a hypothetical developing world context.

References

Oct 21, 1984·Journal of Theoretical Biology·J L Aron, I B Schwartz
Mar 1, 1982·International Journal of Epidemiology·P E Fine, J A Clarkson
Dec 15, 1993·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Z AgurY L Danon
Jan 29, 2000·Science·D J EarnB T Grenfell
Oct 22, 2002·Mathematical Biosciences·Herbert HethcoteLiao Shengbing
Apr 28, 2006·Nature·Neil M FergusonDonald S Burke
Mar 30, 2007·Nature·Lewi StoneAmit Huppert
Nov 9, 2007·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Ronen OlinkyLewi Stone
Nov 21, 2007·Journal of Theoretical Biology·Xianning LiuShingo Iwami
Aug 19, 2008·The American Naturalist·Pejman RohaniBryan T Grenfell
Oct 2, 2009·The Journal of Chemical Physics·O HampeM M Kappes
Dec 26, 2009·Journal of Public Health Management and Practice : JPHMP·Bruce Y LeeDonald S Burke
Feb 5, 2011·Emerging Infectious Diseases·Charlotte JacksonHelen Maguire
Feb 9, 2012·Annals of Internal Medicine·David J D EarnJonathan Dushoff

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Citations

Jun 10, 2016·Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis·Kimberly M Thompson
Apr 24, 2017·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Pablo G BarrientosAlfonso Ruiz-Herrera
Feb 28, 2019·Journal of Mathematical Biology·Jorge DuarteYuriy Rogovchenko

❮ Previous
Next ❯

Related Concepts

Trending Feeds

COVID-19

Coronaviruses encompass a large family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as more serious diseases, such as the ongoing outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19; formally known as 2019-nCoV). Coronaviruses can spread from animals to humans; symptoms include fever, cough, shortness of breath, and breathing difficulties; in more severe cases, infection can lead to death. This feed covers recent research on COVID-19.

Blastomycosis

Blastomycosis fungal infections spread through inhaling Blastomyces dermatitidis spores. Discover the latest research on blastomycosis fungal infections here.

Nuclear Pore Complex in ALS/FTD

Alterations in nucleocytoplasmic transport, controlled by the nuclear pore complex, may be involved in the pathomechanism underlying multiple neurodegenerative diseases including Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis and Frontotemporal Dementia. Here is the latest research on the nuclear pore complex in ALS and FTD.

Applications of Molecular Barcoding

The concept of molecular barcoding is that each original DNA or RNA molecule is attached to a unique sequence barcode. Sequence reads having different barcodes represent different original molecules, while sequence reads having the same barcode are results of PCR duplication from one original molecule. Discover the latest research on molecular barcoding here.

Chronic Fatigue Syndrome

Chronic fatigue syndrome is a disease characterized by unexplained disabling fatigue; the pathology of which is incompletely understood. Discover the latest research on chronic fatigue syndrome here.

Evolution of Pluripotency

Pluripotency refers to the ability of a cell to develop into three primary germ cell layers of the embryo. This feed focuses on the mechanisms that underlie the evolution of pluripotency. Here is the latest research.

Position Effect Variegation

Position Effect Variagation occurs when a gene is inactivated due to its positioning near heterochromatic regions within a chromosome. Discover the latest research on Position Effect Variagation here.

STING Receptor Agonists

Stimulator of IFN genes (STING) are a group of transmembrane proteins that are involved in the induction of type I interferon that is important in the innate immune response. The stimulation of STING has been an active area of research in the treatment of cancer and infectious diseases. Here is the latest research on STING receptor agonists.

Microbicide

Microbicides are products that can be applied to vaginal or rectal mucosal surfaces with the goal of preventing, or at least significantly reducing, the transmission of sexually transmitted infections. Here is the latest research on microbicides.