The second and third waves in India: when will the pandemic be culminated?

European Physical Journal Plus
C KavithaSanto Banerjee

Abstract

An unprecedented upsurge of COVID-19-positive cases and deaths is currently being witnessed across India. According to WHO, India reported an average of 3.9 lakhs of new cases during the first week of May 2021 which equals 47% of new cases reported globally and 276 daily cases per million population. In this letter, the concept of SIR and fractal interpolation models is applied to predict the number of positive cases in India by approximating the epidemic curve, where the epidemic curve denotes the two-dimensional graphical representation of COVID-19-positive cases in which the abscissa denotes the time, while the ordinate provides the number of positive cases. In order to estimate the epidemic curve, the fractal interpolation method is implemented on the prescribed data set. In particular, the vertical scaling factors of the fractal function are selected from the SIR model. The proposed fractal and SIR model can also be explored for the assessment and modeling of other epidemics to predict the transmission rate. This letter investigates the duration of the second and third waves in India, since the positive cases and death cases of COVID-19 in India have been highly increasing for the past few weeks, and India is in a midst of...Continue Reading

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Sep 18, 2013·American Journal of Epidemiology·Anne CoriSimon Cauchemez
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Aug 25, 2020·European Physical Journal Plus·Milad Radiom, Jean-François Berret
Aug 25, 2020·European Physical Journal Plus·A GowrisankarSanto Banerjee
Jan 19, 2021·Mathematical Biosciences·Nicole M Gatto, Henry Schellhorn
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Apr 6, 2021·Physica D. Nonlinear Phenomena·Mustafa Turkyilmazoglu

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Citations

Oct 14, 2021·Health Policy Open·Md Samiul IslamMd Bahauddin Al Mamun

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Software Mentioned

EpiEstim
MATLAB

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