The spatial scale of population fluctuations and quasi-extinction risk

The American Naturalist
S EngenBernt-Erik Saether

Abstract

Using a spatially homogeneous population model with migration (random individual dispersal) and spatially autocorrelated environmental noise, we show how migration and local density regulation affect the spatial scale of fluctuations in the log of population sizes as well as the 1-yr differences in these. The difference between the squares of these two spatial scales of population fluctuations does not depend on the spatial scale of the noise but only on migration rate and strength of local density regulation. We also show how migration, local density regulation, and spatially correlated environmental noise affect the realized population process at a specific location. As the migration increases, the realized local density regulation and the expected population size increase, while the realized environmental noise decreases. This approach also enables us to analyze the dynamics of the total population size within quadrats of different sizes. The risk of local quasi extinction is strongly reduced by increasing quadrat size or migration rate, while an increase in environmental stochasticity or spatial correlation in the environmental noise increases the risk of quasi extinction.

References

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Citations

Sep 3, 2011·Conservation Biology : the Journal of the Society for Conservation Biology·Michael A Patten, Brenda D Smith-Patten
Oct 4, 2008·Ecology·Steinar EngenBernt-Erik Saether
Jun 16, 2004·Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America·Eric Post, Mads C Forchhammer
Oct 15, 2005·The American Naturalist·Steinar Engen, Bernt-Erik Saether
Jul 20, 2011·Theoretical Population Biology·Kjell Hausken, John F Moxnes
Oct 30, 2007·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·Robert E Ricklefs
Feb 17, 2007·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Bernt-Erik SaetherWolfgang Winkel
Aug 8, 2013·The Journal of Animal Ecology·James T ThorsonTimothy Copeland
Oct 26, 2005·Theoretical Population Biology·Otso Ovaskainen, Stephen J Cornell
Apr 8, 2015·American Journal of Primatology·Eric I Ameca y JuárezErnesto Rodríguez-Luna
Sep 3, 2010·Trends in Ecology & Evolution·Otso Ovaskainen, Baruch Meerson
Feb 17, 2005·Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological Sciences·Marc Mangel, Phillip S Levin
Aug 6, 2019·Ecology Letters·Jonatan F MarquezBernt-Erik Saether
Oct 4, 2019·Ecology·Aline Magdalena LeeSteinar Engen
Dec 19, 2019·Global Change Biology·Bart PeetersBrage B Hansen
May 27, 2020·Proceedings. Biological Sciences·Tad A DallasOtso Ovaskainen
Aug 30, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Peter S RankeBernt-Erik Saether
Aug 31, 2021·Ecology·Jonatan F MarquezAline Magdalena Lee
Sep 24, 2021·The Journal of Animal Ecology·Genoa H SullawayJameal F Samhouri

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